Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.399693 25.546450 27.886790 30.642934 33.819835 37.391164 41.744187
2025-08-03 19.666676 22.488620 25.789529 29.993052 35.289198 41.862778 50.843657
2025-08-10 17.254455 20.410369 24.301474 29.568429 36.706315 46.359539 61.018855
2025-08-17 15.662007 19.031814 23.366992 29.542046 38.458520 51.499832 73.449273
2025-08-24 14.346043 17.804300 22.406090 29.239984 39.651752 55.971494 86.218712
2025-08-31 13.304463 16.804513 21.596434 28.973451 40.761814 60.459666 100.575766
2025-09-07 12.441789 15.951729 20.876184 28.700254 41.751476 64.900064 116.631012
2025-09-14 11.744774 15.260788 20.303778 28.551715 42.876914 69.803363 136.002240
2025-09-21 11.086622 14.567305 19.653102 28.179608 43.520312 73.904482 155.706161
2025-09-28 10.863606 14.485519 19.909562 29.312318 47.075256 84.998380 202.345082
2025-10-05 10.368709 13.958183 19.420966 29.103951 48.014449 90.586004 236.985988
2025-10-12 9.946166 13.510686 19.019264 28.994994 49.123344 96.934127 281.172463
2025-10-19 9.634066 13.221444 18.863267 29.337147 51.301552 107.010586 356.463659
2025-10-26 9.253954 12.802994 18.462770 29.182297 52.385860 114.615725 434.771851
2025-11-02 8.893217 12.393922 18.047421 28.952991 53.266846 122.067199 531.166251
2025-11-09 8.608634 12.090068 17.788198 28.998203 54.810636 132.410013 684.467092
2025-11-16 8.296615 11.724170 17.395044 28.731850 55.544537 140.439608 856.125983
2025-11-23 8.011046 11.386731 17.029095 28.482838 56.283412 148.975170 1091.436581
2025-11-30 7.744212 11.067019 16.674008 28.220592 56.946775 157.701408 1415.688463
2025-12-07 7.512910 10.795457 16.388392 28.077326 57.915672 168.423551 1941.676336
2025-12-14 7.266441 10.487179 16.017628 27.714895 58.211376 176.463416 2596.439298
2025-12-21 7.230644 10.533757 16.301150 28.820212 63.020270 210.477463 6480.250106
2025-12-28 7.028656 10.285348 16.017364 28.617071 63.841584 224.287545 11868.975282